In its latest projection, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a notable 3% reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the U.S. energy sector in 2023 compared to the previous year. The decrease is primarily attributed to a decline in electricity generation from coal-fired power plants, offset by an increase in renewable sources like solar power, according to the EIA.
The agency foresees this downward trend continuing into 2024, with CO2 emissions expected to decrease by an additional 1% relative to 2023.
Solar power emerges as the fastest-growing generation source, dominating new generation additions in 2023, as highlighted in an analysis by the SUN DAY Campaign, a non-profit research and educational organization. Solar energy witnessed a substantial 14.3% growth compared to the corresponding period in 2022, surpassing all other energy sources. The SUN DAY Campaign attributes this growth, in large part, to the expansion of small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar photovoltaic (PV), which experienced a significant 19.8% increase and contributed nearly one-third (30.8%) to the total solar production. Over the nine-month period, solar constituted 5.8% of the total U.S. electrical generation, marking a rise from the 5.0% share observed a year earlier.
Fossil fuel-fired power generation remains a significant contributor to CO2 emissions in the United States. Natural gas, due to its cost-effectiveness, has become the primary source of electricity in the country. Emissions from natural gas are also linked to its consumption in residential and commercial sectors for space heating and in the industrial sector for manufacturing processes. The EIA predicts a 1% growth in U.S. CO2 emissions from natural gas in 2023, with levels expected to remain relatively stable in 2024.
The EIA attributes the projected reduction in CO2 emissions to decreased power generation from coal-fired plants, estimating an 18% decline in coal-related CO2 emissions in 2023 and an additional 5% decrease in 2024. The electric power sector has responded to economic competition from natural gas and new renewable capacity by retiring significant coal-fired generating capacity.
In recent years, the electric power sector has undergone a notable shift towards renewable energy sources. A substantial portion of the increased renewable generation is attributed to the expected introduction of 60 gigawatts of new solar generating capacity during 2023 and 2024. The anticipated surge in solar capacity, coupled with the forecasted rise in hydropower generation and modest gains in new wind capacity, is poised to diminish both coal-fired and natural gas-fired power generation in the upcoming year.