Crude oil prices, despite a brief decline due to weak US economic data, are poised to finish the week higher, marking a month-long upward trend. According to Reuters, Brent crude has surged approximately 9% over the past four weeks, reaching its highest level since April, while West Texas Intermediate has climbed $10 per barrel over the same period.
Analysts from ANZ highlighted strong mobility indicators and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as factors supporting market sentiment this week. “There are optimistic signs of increased summer travel in the US, boosting oil demand,” noted Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, in remarks to Bloomberg. She also pointed out that Middle East tensions continue unabated, maintaining a premium on oil prices.
Earlier, Hurricane Beryl briefly influenced prices with a seasonal premium, but as the storm weakened, so did this impact. Bloomberg suggests concerns about an active hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico could sustain price support in the coming weeks.
Further bolstering oil prices, recent US jobless data indicating potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts sooner rather than later. Reports also indicated that Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft plan significant cuts in crude exports this month following refinery maintenance season. Reuters, citing anonymous sources, reported that combined loadings from these companies at Novorosiisk’s Black Sea port are expected to decrease by 220,000 barrels per day compared to June levels.