The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has updated its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), forecasting a rise in global liquid fuel consumption. The EIA predicts that consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025.
According to the August STEO report, world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption is expected to reach 102.94 million barrels per day this year and 104.55 million barrels per day next year. This marks an increase from the total 2023 consumption of 101.80 million barrels per day.
The report indicates that the U.S. will account for 20.45 million barrels per day of the 2024 total and 20.63 million barrels per day of the 2025 total. In contrast, China’s consumption is projected to be 16.34 million barrels per day in 2023 and 16.66 million barrels per day in 2025.
In its previous July STEO, the EIA had forecasted global liquid fuel consumption at 102.91 million barrels per day for 2024 and 104.68 million barrels per day for 2025. The U.S. was projected to consume 20.36 million barrels per day in 2024 and 20.65 million barrels per day in 2025, while China was expected to consume 16.39 million barrels per day in 2024 and 16.75 million barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA’s August report notes a slight reduction in the growth forecast for liquid fuels consumption. “We forecast an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025, which is 0.2 million barrels per day less than previously anticipated,” the report states.
The report highlights that most of the projected growth in liquid fuels demand will come from non-OECD countries, with an expected increase of 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA has revised its forecast for petroleum consumption growth in China due to slower economic activity and updated statistics showing reduced diesel demand, crude oil imports, and refinery runs. China’s GDP growth for the second quarter of 2024 was 4.7 percent, slightly below the government’s 5 percent target, reflecting a slowdown in investment in real estate and construction.
The EIA now expects China’s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption to grow by about 0.3 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, compared to the 0.5 million barrels per day average growth rate from 2015 to 2019.
The Energy Institute’s 2024 statistical review of world energy reports that total oil liquids consumption hit 103.414 million barrels per day in 2023, a 2.8 percent increase from 2022. The U.S. led global consumption with 20.246 million barrels per day, representing 19.6 percent of total consumption. China followed with 16.658 million barrels per day, or 16.1 percent of the total. U.S. consumption grew by 1.2 percent year-on-year, while China’s consumption increased by 10.7 percent.
The review includes inland demand, international aviation, marine bunkers, refinery fuel, and biogasoline such as ethanol and biodiesel.
The EIA is responsible for providing independent and impartial energy information to support sound policymaking and public understanding of energy’s impact on the economy and environment. The Energy Institute is the professional membership body for individuals working in the global energy sector.