OPEC’s latest World Oil Outlook (WOO) for 2024 has made a bold statement: peak oil demand is not expected anytime soon. While there are ongoing talks about moving towards renewable energy, OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase significantly, reaching over 120 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2050. This growth is mainly driven by strong demand from non-OECD countries, which are anticipated to contribute the most to this rise.
OPEC highlighted in its report, “The Outlook underscores that the idea of phasing out oil and gas is disconnected from reality.”
From 2023 to 2029, global oil demand is expected to rise by 10.1 mb/d, with non-OECD countries leading this increase. They are projected to add 9.6 mb/d, bringing their total demand to 66.2 mb/d. In contrast, demand in OECD countries is expected to remain flat, hovering around 46 mb/d. Over the long term, demand from non-OECD countries will continue to rise, adding 28 mb/d by 2050, while demand in OECD countries is forecasted to decline. Key regions driving this growth include India, Other Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Notably, India alone is projected to increase its oil demand by 8 mb/d.
Specific sectors will play a vital role in future oil demand. The petrochemical sector is expected to account for an additional 4.9 mb/d of oil demand, fueled by rising needs for ethane and naphtha. Road transportation demand is forecasted to grow significantly before stabilizing, while aviation demand is expected to add another 4 mb/d by 2050.
OPEC’s report emphasizes that oil and gas will continue to be major components of the global energy mix, representing over 50% through 2050. The organization calls for ongoing investments in the oil sector, estimating that $17.4 trillion will be required by 2050 to maintain a stable supply.
In conclusion, OPEC asserts that oil demand will remain strong for decades, driven by increasing needs in non-OECD regions and a continuous requirement for investments in oil infrastructure. Even with the growth of renewable energy, OPEC believes that oil will still play a crucial role in meeting the world’s energy needs in the foreseeable future.
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