Russia has significantly increased the volume of refining capacity expected to be idle in October by 67%, compared to previous plans, due to scheduled maintenance at major refineries, according to Reuters estimates released on Wednesday.
The country anticipates having 4.0 million metric tons of refining capacity offline this month, based on calculations from industry sources. While this is lower than September’s idle capacity of 4.5 million tons, it surpasses earlier projections.
The rise in idle capacity is largely due to previously delayed maintenance at Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in southwestern Russia, as well as ongoing maintenance at a unit of Lukoil’s NORSI refinery. These delays have pushed more capacity offline in October than initially planned.
Additionally, Rosneft’s refinery in Tuapse, located on the Black Sea, halted crude processing on October 1 due to low refining margins, according to industry sources.
More than half of the idle capacity from October is expected to return to operation in November. Reuters estimates Russia’s offline refining capacity will drop to 1.2 million tons next month. However, if some maintenance works are extended, the idle capacity in November could rise to 1.8 million tons.
Beyond routine seasonal maintenance, Russia’s refining sector has experienced additional disruptions this year due to Ukrainian drone strikes on oil and energy infrastructure. These attacks have increasingly targeted refineries, contributing to unplanned shutdowns and repairs.
The drone attacks have been a key tactic in the ongoing conflict, with energy infrastructure frequently struck by both sides. The damage caused by these strikes, combined with scheduled maintenance, has lowered Russia’s fuel production and exports earlier this year.
In response to these challenges, Russia’s government announced in mid-August that it would extend a ban on gasoline exports from October through December 2024. This move aims to ensure stable domestic fuel supplies amid seasonal demand and refinery maintenance.
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