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EIA Fuel Update Reveals Downward Price Trend for Gasoline

by Krystal

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest fuel update, indicating a downward trend in gasoline prices. As of October 28, the average price for regular gasoline was $3.097 per gallon, down from $3.144 on October 21 and $3.171 on October 14.

Among the five Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) regions, the West Coast reported the highest gasoline price at $3.973 per gallon. In contrast, the Gulf Coast had the lowest price at $2.646 per gallon on the same date.

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The EIA’s glossary explains that the U.S. is divided into five districts, with PADD 1 further split into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and 7 include U.S. territories.

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According to the AAA Gas Prices website, as of October 30, the national average for regular gasoline was $3.135 per gallon. This represents a slight increase from $3.134 the previous day. A week ago, the average was $3.155, while a month ago, it was $3.216. Last year, the average was significantly higher at $3.494.

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The highest average price recorded for regular gasoline was $5.016 per gallon on June 14, 2022, as reported by AAA.

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As of 9:40 AM EST on October 30, GasBuddy’s live average for regular gasoline was $3.121 per gallon. This figure was one cent higher than the previous day but 1.2 cents lower than the average from a week ago. Compared to last month, it was down 7.8 cents and 34.4 cents lower than the average from last year.

Future Price Projections

In its recent short-term energy outlook, the EIA projected that the average price for regular gasoline will be $3.33 per gallon in 2024 and $3.22 per gallon in 2025. This is consistent with its previous forecast, which also estimated $3.33 for 2024 and $3.29 for 2025.

The EIA provided a quarterly breakdown, expecting gasoline prices to average $3.15 in the fourth quarter of this year, $3.11 in the first quarter of 2025, $3.33 in the second quarter, $3.35 in the third quarter, and $3.07 in the fourth quarter.

The EIA explained that a reduction in its crude oil price forecast led to a decrease in its gasoline price outlook. It now anticipates that retail gasoline will average $3.20 per gallon in 2025, down 10 cents from the previous forecast.

Breakdown of Gasoline Costs

The EIA’s latest update indicated that 53% of the retail price of regular gasoline, pegged at $3.21 per gallon in September, goes towards crude oil costs. Distribution and marketing account for 20%, taxes make up 16%, and refining costs comprise 11%.

In a previous update from November 2023, where gasoline was priced at $3.84 per gallon, 55% of that amount was attributed to crude oil, 19% to refining, 13% to taxes, and 12% to distribution and marketing costs.

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