Russia has expressed its willingness to continue supplying natural gas to Europe through Ukraine, provided Kyiv and the relevant European countries can reach an agreement.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the country’s energy policy, told reporters, “In my opinion, the European countries receiving gas through this route are interested in continuing this cooperation. We are ready to supply, but much of it depends on the negotiations between the users and the country through which the gas is transported.”
Ukraine previously announced that it would not renew its five-year pipeline transit agreement, which is set to expire on December 31, 2024. The European Union’s energy chief, Kadri Simson, has indicated that the EU has “no interest” in pushing to revive the agreement. The EU has already urged member states to prepare for a future without Russian gas, as gas deliveries from Ukraine account for 5% of the EU’s total gas imports.
Aura Sabadus, a senior analyst at ICIS, told Politico that Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia are expected to be the most affected if gas imports from Ukraine are cut off. Over the past two years, Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian energy due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. In December 2022, the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian crude oil, followed by a ban on oil products—including petrol and diesel—in February 2023.
Meanwhile, Russian natural gas imports into Europe have dropped sharply, from around 450 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) at the end of 2021 to approximately 150 mcm/d today. Current gas flows to Europe are split between liquefied natural gas (LNG), pipeline deliveries through Ukraine, and other routes, including Turkey to Bulgaria and a smaller flow through Belarus into Lithuania. Despite the dramatic reduction in Russian imports, Europe has managed to get through two winters with sufficient gas supplies.
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