Nigeria, long seen as the unpredictable player in OPEC, has increased its oil production to 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd), with plans to reach 2 million bpd by the end of the year. This ambitious target comes just months after the country struggled to produce 1.3 million bpd in September, according to OPEC’s October Oil Market Report.
The jump in production is impressive, but it raises questions about how Nigeria achieved this growth. There is speculation that the country may be including large amounts of condensate in its production figures, which could inflate the total output.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) credits its success to “collaborative efforts” with joint ventures and production-sharing partners. This collaboration has also extended to security forces, as Nigeria has faced significant challenges with oil theft and pipeline sabotage. The country’s oil infrastructure has long been vulnerable to crude thieves, making it difficult to maintain consistent production.
NNPC CEO Mele Kyari highlighted the importance of teamwork in recovering production and improving efficiency. In particular, the “war room” strategy, launched in June, has played a key role in this turnaround. This initiative brought together oil companies, private security teams, and government officials to focus on tackling crude theft and sabotage. As a result, illegal refining operations were shut down, vessels involved in illegal activities were destroyed, and pipelines were more closely monitored.
Nigeria’s oil recovery is part of a larger trend within OPEC. In October, the organization saw a 466,000 bpd increase in total output, largely due to Libya’s return to full production capacity after resolving a political crisis that had severely disrupted its output. However, recent protests in Libya have once again caused disruptions, with demonstrators shutting down key oil distribution valves.
Nigeria’s ability to meet its oil production target will depend on the continued success of its “war room” strategy and its ability to maintain stability in an environment often marked by chaos.
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