Global oil demand reached a record high of 103.79 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August, marking the third consecutive month of new demand records, according to commodity analysts at Standard Chartered. The growth in oil demand during the month was 1.32 mb/d, signaling a positive outlook for oil markets as they approach the end of the year.
On Tuesday, the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) released its latest oil market report, revealing that global oil demand in September was 103.012 mb/d, the fourth consecutive month demand exceeded 103 mb/d. While the year-on-year increase in demand for September was 1.136 mb/d—slightly lower than the average growth of 1.332 mb/d seen so far this year—it was still an improvement compared to August, when growth slowed to 0.631 mb/d.
StanChart has pointed out that while global oil demand is reaching new highs, the growth rate has slowed somewhat compared to earlier post-pandemic years. Despite this, the bank noted that demand growth remains robust.
The biggest demand gains in August came from countries such as South Korea (219 kb/d), Italy (185 kb/d), Saudi Arabia (117 kb/d), Turkey (99 kb/d), and Spain (88 kb/d). In response to stronger-than-expected growth in August, StanChart has raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 to 1.45 mb/d.
However, the bank also noted a key concern: traders continue to overlook the fact that non-OPEC supply growth has slowed more significantly than demand this year. According to estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), non-OPEC supply growth has dropped from 2.40 mb/d in 2023 to 0.93 mb/d in 2024. Meanwhile, global demand growth has slowed from 1.99 mb/d in 2023 to 0.86 mb/d in 2024. This means that non-OPEC supply is growing slower than demand by a wider margin than previously expected.
Other energy agencies, such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), have provided even more dramatic estimates of the slowdown in non-OPEC supply. The EIA forecasts a 1.89 mb/d slowdown in non-OPEC supply, while demand growth is expected to slow by 1.19 mb/d. StanChart’s own estimates suggest a 1.83 mb/d slowdown in non-OPEC supply, compared to a 0.60 mb/d slowdown in demand growth.
Looking ahead, StanChart has highlighted that market conditions may allow for a full rollback of OPEC+ voluntary cuts by 2025, without causing a significant oversupply. The bank’s model, which aligns with the EIA’s, shows that if OPEC+ countries adhere to production targets and address past overproduction, inventories would only increase marginally—by about 0.3 mb/d—despite the return of more barrels to the market.
StanChart also emphasized that OPEC+ actions will play a crucial role in shaping the near- and mid-term oil price trajectory. Recent negative sentiment in oil markets, particularly regarding OPEC+ cuts, can be attributed to misunderstandings about the tapering mechanism for the voluntary cuts. Many traders are concerned that the balance between oil demand growth and non-OPEC supply growth may not offset the planned increases in OPEC+ output, leading to a potential oversupply. However, experts argue that this assumption ignores OPEC+’s continued reassurances that any tapering of cuts will be based on market conditions, not automatic.
Traders have focused on how much output could return to the market before an oversupply occurs, but StanChart believes the answer to that question is zero. In early November, OPEC announced that the increase in output would be delayed by a month until January 2025. StanChart suggests that this delay reflects OPEC+’s recognition of pessimistic predictions for the 2025 oil market balance, rather than a belief that the market cannot absorb additional oil. The bank concludes that this latest move strengthens the argument that OPEC+’s approach to tapering will be more flexible and market-dependent, contrary to traders’ fears. This realization has likely fueled the recent rally in oil prices.
Related Topics:
- Crude Oil Faces Second Day of Losses as IEA and OPEC Warn of Oversupply
- OPEC+ Struggles to Boost Oil Prices Amid Attractive Discounts on Petcoke
- OPEC: September Sees Increase in VLCC and Suezmax Dirty Spot Freight Rates