Kazakhstan is looking to significantly boost its crude oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, aiming to reduce its dependence on Russia, which currently handles over 80% of the country’s oil flows, Reuters reports.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister, Almasadam Satkaliyev, has indicated that exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline could rise sharply from 1.5 million metric tons per year to 20 million metric tons. This increase is expected as Kazakhstan ramps up its oil production.
“We are interested in expanding Kazakh oil shipments, and our Azerbaijani partners are also keen to support this growth,” Satkaliyev told parliament.
Kazakhstan plans to produce 88.4 million metric tons of crude oil this year, which is about 1.82 million barrels per day. This is slightly below the original target of more than 90 million metric tons, reflecting the country’s commitments to reduce production as part of the OPEC+ agreement.
Earlier this year, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan submitted their compensation plans to OPEC for the crude oil they overproduced during the first half of 2024. OPEC has stated that these overproduced volumes will be fully compensated by September 2025, with Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan each “paying back” their excess production—480,000 barrels per day (kb/d), 1.18 million kb/d, and 620,000 kb/d, respectively.
Commodity experts at Standard Chartered note that much of the recent negative sentiment in the oil markets stems from misunderstandings about OPEC+ voluntary cuts. Some traders are concerned that the balance between growing oil demand and non-OPEC+ supply may not be enough to offset the increase in OPEC+ production, potentially leading to an oversupply of oil. However, OPEC+ has repeatedly reassured markets that the pace of output adjustments will depend entirely on market conditions.
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