On December 1, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company, SOCAR, began supplying natural gas to Slovakia’s largest energy operator, Slovenský plynárenský priemysel (SPP). This follows a recent agreement between SPP and Azerbaijan to purchase natural gas in a short-term pilot deal, which comes as Slovakia braces for a potential halt to Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine.
Ukraine has already announced it will not renew its five-year gas transit agreement with Russia, set to expire on December 31, 2024. The European Union’s energy chief, Kadri Simson, has indicated that the EU is not actively pursuing efforts to extend the agreement.
The EU has advised member countries to prepare for a future without Russian gas. Currently, Ukrainian gas supplies account for 5% of the EU’s total gas imports. According to Aura Sabadus, a senior analyst at ICIS, countries like Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia are likely to be most affected by the reduction in supply. In response, Russia has stated it is open to continuing gas exports to Europe via Ukraine, provided the involved parties can reach a new agreement. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the country’s energy policy, emphasized that while Russia is willing to supply gas, any renewed transit agreement must be negotiated directly between Ukraine and the European countries.
Meanwhile, Turkey has expressed its readiness to increase natural gas exports to the EU as part of efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas. However, this solution is neither easy nor cost-effective. Turkey is likely to re-export Azerbaijani natural gas to Europe, but this would require it to receive more Russian gas to cover domestic shortfalls. Ankara is eager to position itself as a key energy partner for Europe, but it seeks assurances from the EU before investing in the necessary infrastructure to make this a reality.
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