OPEC has published its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), which highlights key factors impacting global oil markets and provides its outlook for crude oil trends. The organization reaffirmed its previous forecast, predicting strong global oil demand growth of 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025. This growth will be largely driven by demand from non-OECD countries (the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), which is expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d. In contrast, oil demand growth within the OECD is projected to remain minimal, at just 0.1 mb/d. OPEC also anticipates continued robust demand growth in 2026, with global oil demand set to increase by another 1.4 mb/d. Non-OECD countries are again expected to drive the bulk of this demand, with an anticipated growth of 1.3 mb/d compared to 0.1 mb/d in the OECD.
On the supply side, OPEC forecasts non-DoC (Declaration of Cooperation) liquids supply to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2025, driven mainly by production increases in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. In 2026, non-DoC liquids supply is expected to grow by the same amount, with the U.S., Brazil, and Canada again playing a key role. Meanwhile, the supply of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from DoC countries is expected to rise by 90,000 barrels per day (tb/d) in 2025, reaching an average of 8.4 mb/d. Growth in 2026 is forecast to be modest, with an increase of just 0.1 mb/d, bringing the average to 8.5 mb/d.
The Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) was established in 2016 as a partnership between OPEC member countries and 11 non-OPEC oil producers (now 10, after Equatorial Guinea joined OPEC in 2017). The agreement, aimed at stabilizing the global oil market, was initially set for six months but has been extended multiple times due to its success.
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