OPEC‘s latest global oil demand projections for 2026 indicate a consumption increase of 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d), similar to the growth expected for this year.
In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), released today, OPEC forecast that oil demand will rise by 1.43 million b/d, reaching 106.63 million b/d by 2026. This growth is expected to be supported by continued strong economic activity in Asia and other non-OECD countries.
For this year, OPEC maintains its earlier projection of a 1.45 million b/d increase in oil demand. However, the group has revised its demand growth forecast for 2024 downward by 70,000 b/d to 1.54 million b/d, marking the sixth consecutive monthly revision. This brings OPEC’s estimate closer to that of other major forecasters, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), though a significant gap remains between OPEC’s and the IEA’s projections for 2024.
OPEC’s 2024 oil demand estimate of 103.75 million b/d is 600,000 b/d higher than the IEA’s forecast of 103.15 million b/d. Additionally, OPEC’s 2025 demand growth estimate exceeds the IEA’s by 400,000 b/d, with OPEC predicting 1.45 million b/d of growth compared to the IEA’s 1.05 million b/d.
China, traditionally a major driver of global oil demand growth, is expected to contribute 270,000 b/d to global consumption in 2026, down from 310,000 b/d in 2025 and 300,000 b/d in 2024. In 2023, China added about 1.4 million b/d to global demand.
On the supply side, OPEC expects non-OPEC+ liquids supply to grow by 1.1 million b/d in 2026, a level consistent with the growth forecast for 2025. This growth is primarily driven by production increases in the U.S., Brazil, and Canada. In 2024, non-OPEC+ liquids supply increased by 1.3 million b/d.
OPEC+ crude production, including Mexico, fell by 14,000 b/d to 40.65 million b/d in December, based on secondary sources including Argus. For 2025, OPEC has set the call on OPEC+ crude at 42.5 million b/d, with a slight increase to 42.7 million b/d expected in 2026.
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