Russia’s oil shipments via the Baltic Sea saw a 10% decline in the last four months of 2024, according to a report from the Finnish Border Guard. This drop is attributed to the impact of European Union sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas exports. Finland’s Coast Guard has been monitoring the so-called “shadow fleet” that Russia uses to move crude oil through the Gulf of Finland.
Mikko Hirvi, the Finnish Border Guard’s Head of Maritime Safety, shared with Reuters that the drop was significant. “In the last four or five months of last year, we saw a roughly 10% decline in the amount of oil leaving from Russia,” Hirvi said. While the decline is seen as a positive development, Hirvi also pointed out a concerning trend. “Older vessels have been added to the traffic in the Baltic Sea, and the vessels in operation are in worse condition than before,” he explained. He added that it remains unclear whether this decline will be temporary or long-term.
The downturn comes on the heels of a surge in oil prices, triggered by the Biden administration’s announcement of its toughest sanctions yet on Russian oil. A leaked U.S. Treasury document, which circulated among traders in Europe and Asia, revealed that 180 vessels, several senior Russian oil executives, numerous traders, and two major oil companies were targeted by the sanctions. It was later confirmed that Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, two key firms responsible for about 25% of Russian oil exports, are included in the sanctions. These companies shipped an average of 970,000 barrels per day in 2024.
In response to the sanctions, India has pledged to comply and stop accepting sanctioned tankers. This move is expected to severely disrupt Russian oil exports to both India and China, the two largest buyers of Russian crude. India’s oil imports from Russia saw a sharp 55% year-on-year drop in November, reaching their lowest level since June 2022, as the country looks to diversify its sources of oil.
Last year, India briefly surpassed China as the largest importer of Russian crude, but now, the impact of sanctions appears to be reshaping global oil trade patterns.
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