OPEC+ has confirmed it will continue its plan to gradually increase oil production starting in April. At the same time, the group has decided to exclude the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) from the list of sources used to monitor production and track adherence to supply agreements.
The decision comes after a strained relationship between OPEC+ and former U.S. President Donald Trump during his first term from 2016 to 2020. Trump frequently urged the organization to boost production to offset declining Iranian oil supplies due to U.S. sanctions. Since returning to office, President Trump has once again called on OPEC to raise oil production in an effort to lower prices, arguing that high prices have enabled Russia to sustain its war efforts in Ukraine.
During an online meeting on Monday, senior OPEC+ ministers confirmed that there would be no changes to the planned increase in output. They also announced adjustments to the list of consultants and firms, known as secondary sources, that monitor production. An OPEC+ official stated that the decision to remove EIA data was due to the agency’s lack of adequate communication and not due to political motives.
Impact of Sanctions on Oil Prices
Concerns over the effects of U.S. sanctions on Russia caused oil prices to rise to $83 a barrel on January 15, marking the highest level since August. However, prices have since fallen below $77, although they saw a brief increase on Monday amid fears of supply disruptions from tariffs. On Tuesday, oil prices dropped to $75.47 following Trump’s decision to delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Current OPEC+ Production Cuts
OPEC+ and its allies, including Russia, are currently reducing output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global supply. This decision is part of a series of production cuts implemented since 2022. In December, OPEC+ extended its latest round of cuts through the first quarter of 2025, delaying the planned increase in production until April due to weak demand and growing supply from outside the group.
Future Production Increase Plans
As part of the ongoing plan, OPEC+ will begin gradually unwinding 2.2 million bpd of cuts in April, starting with a monthly increase of 138,000 bpd for the United Arab Emirates, according to Reuters calculations. The gradual increase is expected to continue until September 2026.
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