Australian coking coal exports saw a sharp drop in January 2025, falling by 23% month-on-month to 11.33 million tons, down from 14.73 million tons in December 2024, according to BigMint.
The decline was caused by several factors, including limited supply from key producers at the end of 2024, weaker demand, and shifts in trade flows. Despite this, exports were up 5% compared to January 2024.
India and China, two major buyers of Australian coking coal, both saw significant reductions in imports. Shipments to India dropped by 23% to 2.52 million tons, while exports to China fell by 53% to 0.84 million tons. Shipments to Japan also decreased by 47%, totaling 1.94 million tons. However, South Korea bucked the trend, increasing imports by 25% to 1.78 million tons.
The decline in exports was reflected at key Australian ports. Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) saw a 14% drop in shipments, while Gladstone Port recorded a 13% decrease. Hay Point and Abbot Point ports faced larger declines of 41% and 31%, respectively. Shipments from Kembla and Newcastle ports also fell by 26% and 18%.
In January, the average price of Australian coking coal decreased by $7 per ton, falling to $193 per ton FOB. The price drop was driven by weaker steel demand and cautious buying from major importers.
Despite these challenges, analysts remain optimistic about long-term demand for Australian coking coal. They expect exports to recover in the coming months, depending on trends in the steel industry, trade policies, and potential supply disruptions from other countries.
In its December report, Fitch Ratings raised its iron ore price forecast for 2024 to $110 per ton, but left its coking coal price forecast unchanged. The price of coking coal is expected to reach $190 per ton in 2025 and $170 per ton in 2026.
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