OPEC+ has decided to increase its oil production for the first time since 2022, adding approximately 138,000 barrels per day starting in April, according to Reuters calculations. This marks a cautious move towards unwinding the 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in cuts that the group has been holding onto for years.
Oil prices were down significantly during afternoon trading.
The decision comes amid renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been calling for lower oil prices and urging Saudi Arabia and its allies to increase production. With crude prices around $71 per barrel and a mix of geopolitical and economic uncertainty—including U.S. sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, as well as a potential global tariff war—OPEC+ faced a difficult decision.
According to OPEC insider Amena Bakr, the plan is to gradually phase out the 2.2 million bpd production cuts between April and September 2026. OPEC+ has stated that this gradual increase could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. The group is still maintaining a 5.85 million bpd cut—about 5.7% of global supply—that has been in place since 2022 to support prices. However, with Trump considering cutting Iranian exports to zero and the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could bring more Russian crude to the market, the situation remains unpredictable.
Inside OPEC+, tensions have been building. Saudi Arabia, traditionally the stabilizer in the oil market, was reportedly hesitant about a sudden surge in production. Meanwhile, the UAE has been eager to increase output and has even considered leaving the cartel. With Chinese demand unstable, today’s increase could be seen as a trial run rather than a permanent shift in policy.
In conclusion, OPEC+ is cautiously testing the waters with this production increase. Whether the group makes a larger move will depend on how the market, and President Trump, respond.
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