Kazakhstan’s oil production reached a record high of 2.12 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, marking a 13% increase from January. Excluding gas condensate, which is a type of light oil, crude oil production rose by 15.5% month-on-month to 1.83 million bpd.
Despite challenges from damage to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)—its main export route through Russia—Kazakhstan has successfully boosted its output. Russia reported that the CPC’s capacity had been reduced by 30-40% following a Ukrainian drone attack two weeks ago. The impact on Kazakhstan’s oil exports remains unclear, especially since the CPC accounts for over 80% of the country’s oil exports.
The production surge comes as Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, operated by Tengizchevroil and led by Chevron, has ramped up output. The field is undergoing a $48 billion expansion. There have been reports suggesting that Kazakhstan may increase its oil exports through Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, reducing its reliance on Russia. According to Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev, exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline could rise to 20 million metric tons per year, up from the current 1.5 million, as production grows.
Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its OPEC+ output quota of 1.468 million bpd. Last year, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq submitted compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat to make up for overproduced crude. These overproduction volumes are set to be fully compensated by September 2025, with Kazakhstan contributing 620,000 bpd, Russia 480,000 bpd, and Iraq 1.18 million bpd.
Traders are concerned that the global oil market may be oversupplied when OPEC+ begins reducing production cuts in April. However, analysts from Standard Chartered believe this worry overlooks OPEC+ assurances that the easing of cuts will be based on market conditions.
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