The ink is still fresh on Trump’s 10% tariff on Canadian energy, and fuel prices are already feeling the effects. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan explains that the tariff’s true impact won’t shift refining patterns but will increase costs throughout the system. In short, expect higher prices at the pump, with GasBuddy predicting price hikes.
Why can’t U.S. refiners simply replace Canadian crude with American oil? The answer lies in infrastructure, investment, and basic logistics. Pipelines serving the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Rockies were built to transport Canadian heavy crude—not the light crude from Texas or North Dakota. It’s similar to asking a skier to suddenly ski uphill.
Another challenge is refinery compatibility. Refineries built for Canadian heavy crude can’t process light U.S. shale oil without costly upgrades. GasBuddy compares it to filling a diesel truck with regular gasoline—it’s possible but would likely cause severe damage.
The areas hit hardest will be the Northeast, which relies heavily on refined products from Canada. GasBuddy warns that prices there could rise by 20 to 40 cents per gallon by mid-March. The Midwest and Great Lakes regions, where local refineries depend on Canadian crude, could see price increases of 5 to 25 cents per gallon. The Rockies aren’t immune either, with price hikes of 10 to 20 cents expected.
Meanwhile, oil prices have already dropped, with WTI at $67.31 and Brent at $70.27—indicating that traders expect demand to decline. However, this doesn’t mean savings at the pump. Consumers are facing higher costs due to the tariff, refinery issues, and seasonal price increases.
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