Operations at Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah shale gas field, the country’s largest unconventional gas site and one of the biggest outside the U.S., are set to begin this year, according to Saudi Aramco’s President and CEO, Amin Nasser. The energy giant stated that Phase 1 will produce 200 million standard cubic feet per day (Mscfd) of gas in 2024, with production expected to reach 2 billion standard cubic feet per day (Scfd) by 2030. This increase would boost Aramco’s gas output capacity by approximately 60%, helping to meet growing domestic power needs, reduce crude oil consumption in electricity generation, and potentially support future gas exports.
However, questions remain about the accuracy of these projections. Analysts have long scrutinized Saudi Arabia’s reserve and production figures, noting inconsistencies in past estimates. As highlighted in recent market analyses, the Kingdom has a history of sudden, unexplained increases in its reported oil reserves. In 1989, Saudi Arabia claimed 170 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. Just a year later, without discovering any major new fields, that estimate surged by 51.2% to 257 billion barrels. The figure climbed again in subsequent years, reaching 268.5 billion barrels by 2017—despite the country extracting an average of 8.162 million barrels per day (bpd) during that period. From 1990 to 2017, Saudi Arabia removed approximately 80.43 billion barrels of oil, yet its official reserve numbers continued to rise, leading to skepticism about the accuracy of its reporting.
A similar pattern appears to be emerging with Jafurah’s gas reserves. In early 2024, Saudi Arabia announced an additional 15 trillion standard cubic feet (Tscf) of proven gas reserves at Jafurah, bringing the total to 229 Tscf (about 6.5 trillion cubic meters). For comparison, Russia holds approximately 48 Tcm, Iran 34 Tcm, and Qatar nearly 24 Tcm in proven gas reserves. This abrupt increase in Saudi Arabia’s gas estimates has raised doubts about the credibility of its figures.
Saudi Arabia’s production capacity claims have also been met with skepticism. A key example occurred following the September 14, 2019, attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities. At the time, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that the country would restore production to 11 million bpd by the end of September and reach full capacity of 12 million bpd within two months. In reality, Saudi Arabia’s average crude oil production from 1973 to 2019 was only 8.151 million bpd, and it had never consistently produced 12 million bpd. Even after briefly reaching 11.093 million bpd in November 2018 and 12 million bpd in April 2020, it failed to sustain those levels.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) defines spare capacity as the volume of production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. However, Saudi Arabia has previously included stored oil, redirected contracts, and even imported crude in its calculations, leading to further skepticism about its true production capacity. Given this history, doubts persist over whether Jafurah’s production targets will be met.
Even if Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah gas production targets are achieved, the question remains whether they will significantly impact the country’s energy mix and export potential. EIA data shows that Saudi Arabia burned more than 500,000 bpd of crude oil for power generation in the latter half of 2023. If Jafurah reaches its projected output of 2 billion Scfd by 2030, this would be equivalent to approximately 334,000 barrels of oil per day in energy terms. This falls short of the current crude oil consumption for power generation and does not account for any increases in energy demand over the next six years.
Ultimately, while Saudi Arabia is pushing forward with ambitious plans for Jafurah, its track record of optimistic production forecasts and reserve estimates leaves room for doubt. Whether the project will truly transform the country’s energy landscape remains uncertain.
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