In the latest Drilling Productivity Report released on Monday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates a second consecutive monthly decline in oil output from the leading shale-producing regions in the United States in December.
According to the EIA, oil production is set to decrease marginally to 9.652 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, compared to an estimated 9.653 million bpd in November.
Despite this overall decrease, the Permian basin, spanning Texas and New Mexico and ranking as the primary shale-producing region, is expected to achieve a record oil production for the sixth consecutive month in December. The EIA notes, however, that the rate of growth in the Permian is projected to decelerate.
Oil production in the Permian basin is forecasted to reach approximately 5.981 million bpd in December, a slight increase from 5.976 million bpd in November.
In terms of natural gas output, the EIA projects a decline of about 0.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 99.6 bcfd in December across major shale basins. This follows a peak monthly output of 100.4 bcfd in August, positioning gas production to register a record fourth consecutive monthly decline in December based on EIA data dating back to 2007.
Within the prominent shale gas basin, Appalachia, covering Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, gas output is expected to decrease by 0.2 bcfd to 35.8 bcfd in December, marking its lowest level since May. Appalachia had previously reached a record output of 36.2 bcfd in September.
The EIA further anticipates a slight uptick in new Appalachia gas well production per rig, reaching 25.02 per million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) in December compared to 25.01 mmcfd in November. This modest increase comes after 34 consecutive months of declining well productivity and a reduction in the number of rigs operating in Appalachia to 39 in October, the lowest since October 2021.
In October, producers drilled 859 oil and gas wells, the lowest figure since February 2022, and completed only 951 wells, the lowest since December 2022. Additionally, the total number of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) oil and gas wells decreased by 92 to 4,524 in October, marking the lowest level since December 2013, according to the EIA.