In anticipation of the Energy Information Administration‘s (EIA) weekly storage report, U.S. natural gas prices demonstrated resilience on Thursday. Analysts in the market foresaw storage levels to hover around 8% above the norm, with an expected drawdown of 8 billion cubic feet (Bcf). As of November 17, 2023, storage recorded 3,826 Bcf, marking a decrease of 7 Bcf from the previous week but standing notably higher than both the previous year and the five-year average.
Anticipated Volatility Amid Warm Weather
Market observers are predicting potential volatility in the natural gas market following the EIA report. The forecast suggests a draw range of 10 to 13 Bcf, falling short of the 5-year average draw of 44 Bcf due to the prevailing warmer weather across the United States, leading to a decrease in demand.
Short-Term Price Outlook
On Wednesday, U.S. natural gas futures experienced a 1% increase, reaching a one-week high. This surge coincides with the introduction of a higher-priced January contract and revised demand forecasts, signaling cautious optimism prevailing in the market.
Long-Term and Short-Term Outlooks
In the long term, expectations point towards a rise in natural gas prices from 2025 onwards. This is attributed to growing demand and the introduction of new U.S. LNG export facilities. This projection contrasts with the existing scenario of high U.S. gas production, reaching 107.7 billion cubic feet per day in November, and the anticipation of reduced demand due to warmer weather.
The stabilization of energy inventories in response to energy crises in Europe and Asia has played a pivotal role in the market’s adaptation. Europe’s shift from Russian pipeline gas to costlier LNG stands out as a significant long-term transition.
In the short term, a bearish outlook looms over the natural gas market, driven primarily by robust supply and the unlikely prospect of substantial winter price spikes, indicating the possibility of lower prices.
The current sentiment in the natural gas market is cautiously bullish. The daily price, standing at 2.847, is slightly above the minor resistance level of 2.838, suggesting potential upward movement. However, it remains below the 50-day moving average of 3.065, indicating some bearish pressure in the short term. In contrast, the price comfortably exceeds the 200-day moving average of 2.619, reinforcing a bullish outlook in the medium term.
Approaching the critical resistance at 3.002 will be a decisive test for the market. A successful breach of this level could signal stronger bullish momentum, while failure to surpass it may result in a pullback.