On December 15, the United States marked a significant milestone by setting a new annual oil production record, as per data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). While the official monthly figures are pending release for the next couple of months, a preliminary analysis indicates that the new record has indeed been established.
To provide context, the previous record was established in 2019, a year before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a total U.S. crude oil production of 4.49 billion barrels or 12.3 million barrels per day (BPD) [source]. Subsequently, the pandemic led to a decline in oil production in 2020 and 2021 before witnessing a resurgence in 2022.
Calculating Production The EIA disseminates oil production figures through various outlets, including the U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil, which provides monthly totals and averages with a slight time lag. For instance, as of December 14, the latest month available is September, with U.S. oil production up to that point standing at 3.50 billion total barrels.
Additionally, weekly production numbers are accessible through the EIA’s Petroleum Status Report, released every Wednesday. The U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, featured in this report, outlines U.S. oil production, inventories, imports, and more for the previous week, including the four-week average.
By examining the November 3 archive, the average weekly production in October was 13.2 million BPD. This translates to an additional ~409 million barrels produced in October. Extending to the December 6 archive, the four-week average ending December 1, closely approximating November monthly production, was 13.175 million BPD. This equates to another ~395 million barrels produced in November, bringing the year-to-date total to 4.30 billion barrels.
On December 1, U.S. producers were just 190 million barrels shy of surpassing the previous record. The latest weekly production number from the EIA, representing the first week of December, was 13.1 million BPD. At this rate, breaking the record would take approximately 14.5 days of December production. With a more conservative assumption of 13.0 million BPD, the timing adjusts slightly to 14.6 days.
Thus, it is reasonably assumed that around noon on December 15, the U.S. achieved a new oil production record.
While the EIA might make slight adjustments to production numbers upon releasing the final monthly figures for 2023 in March or April, any shifts are likely to be minimal. The fundamental fact remains—a new oil production record has been set.
An open question lingers regarding the magnitude of this record. Assuming a more conservative 13.0 million BPD for the remainder of December, the year-end projection would reach 4.70 billion barrels. This represents nearly a 5% increase over the previous record, surpassing the 2019 level by 210 million barrels.
This new production record aligns with one of the energy predictions made in January 2023, as hinted at earlier this week in a TikTok video and elaborated on the year-end episode of In the Oil Patch Radio.
Natural Gas In tandem with the oil production success, the U.S. is poised to achieve a new natural gas production record this year. Through September, production stands slightly over 4% higher than last year’s record. While the EIA does not provide weekly natural gas production numbers, the record, if assuming constant September production for the remainder of the year, is projected around December 20. Nevertheless, a margin of about five days in either direction exists due to monthly gas production variability. The precise timing will only be confirmed with the release of the EIA’s monthly natural gas numbers next year, but the likelihood of a new natural gas production record is high.