Angola, the second-largest oil producer in Africa, has declared its intention to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in December, shedding light on the complex dynamics between African oil exporters and their larger counterparts.
In the wake of OPEC’s commitment to reduce oil production to stabilize Brent crude prices amid a decline, Angola’s decision to exit gained momentum in June 2023. This followed Saudi-led efforts during an OPEC meeting to lower Angola’s oil quota, leading to a walkout by the African nation. A subsequent compromise involved an independent third party reviewing production targets for Angola, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo. However, all three African countries saw their 2024 targets diminished despite the review.
Angola, feeling particularly aggrieved, emphasized the contrasting increase in the oil quota for the wealthier United Arab Emirates (UAE) while committing to OPEC’s production cuts conflicted with its policy objectives. The Minister of Mineral Resources and Petroleum, Diamantino Azevedo, stated, “If we remained in OPEC… Angola would be forced to cut production, and this goes against our policy of avoiding decline and respecting contracts.”
Analysts, such as Alex Vines from Chatham House, suggest that Angola’s departure has been brewing for a year and aligns with President João Lourenço’s broader foreign policy vision. Since taking office in September 2017, Lourenço has pursued an “Angola First foreign policy” aiming at independence from international organizations like OPEC.
While some interpret this move as a potential pro-Western shift, Vines contends that Luanda aims to avoid being “pigeon-holed” by geopolitical blocs. Ariel Cohen, managing director of the energy, growth, and security program at the International Tax and Investment Center, agrees, stating that Angola’s move is not indicative of a pro-Western inclination, especially given its substantial ties with China.
Cohen argues that OPEC has alienated African countries, including Angola, in recent years. He attributes this alienation to OPEC’s transformation into a tool for geopolitical maneuvers, leading to discontent among member countries. The departure of Angola, although not a significant immediate concern for OPEC’s oil market dominance, could impact the organization’s power and prestige in the long term.
As Africa seeks greater influence in global institutions, Angola’s decision to leave OPEC aligns with a broader trend. However, there is currently no indication of a mass exodus by other African OPEC members. The outcome of Angola’s newfound sovereignty over oil production will likely influence the decisions of other African nations contemplating a similar move.