China is projected to surpass its installed capacity for wind and solar energy, outpacing coal for the first time by the end of this year, according to estimates from the country’s power trade association. As part of its ambitious goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China aims to source 80% of its energy needs from non-fossil fuel sources.
The China Electricity Council (CEC) reported on Tuesday that non-fossil energy, inclusive of nuclear and hydropower, already constitutes over half of the power generating capacity in the world’s second-largest economy. The CEC anticipates that China’s grid-connected wind and solar power generation capacity could exceed 1,300 gigawatts (GW) by the close of 2024, with around 530GW from wind and 780GW from solar.
This surge in renewable energy could elevate the share of wind and solar power to 40% of China’s total installed power generation capacity by the end of 2024, up from 36% in 2023, as indicated by the CEC. In 2023, the total installed capacity of power from non-fossil fuel sources surpassed 50% of the total generation capacity for the first time. By the close of 2024, the cumulative capacity of non-fossil fuel power is expected to reach 1,860GW, or 57% of the total capacity.
The CEC’s report forecasts a decline in the share of coal-fired power to 37% of the total installed capacity by the end of 2024, down from 39.9% in 2023. China, being the largest producer of greenhouse gases, aims to have 80% of its total energy mix sourced from non-fossil fuel sources by 2060.
Hao Yingjie, the secretary general of the CEC, emphasized, “Judging from the investments, growth rate of power-generation capacity and changes in power structures, the power industry continues to advance the trend of green and low-carbon transformation.” China’s power sector is a major contributor to climate-warming emissions.
The combined 1,300GW of wind and solar power generation capacity by the end of 2024 indicates that China will surpass its goal of installing 1,200GW of solar and wind capacity ahead of its initial timeline of 2030.
While the report highlights the record-breaking installation of renewable energy capacity, it does not provide specific details and forecasts about the share of renewable energy sources in China’s power consumption. Coal power is expected to account for nearly 60% of China’s total power use in 2023, remaining the dominant source in the current power supply.
The CEC estimates a 6% growth in China’s electricity consumption in 2024, reaching 9.8 trillion kilowatt-hours, a slower rate compared to the 6.7% growth observed in 2023. Some regions may face challenges due to the intermittent supply of renewable power, prompting the CEC to call for improvements in the power sector’s resilience to natural disasters and supply shocks. The council advocates for a market-based power tariff system, emphasizing the need for a “new-type power system” dominated by renewable energy through advancements in energy storage technologies.