A report unveiled during the China EV100 Forum 2024 in Beijing forecasts that global new energy passenger car sales will surpass 39 million units by 2030, marking a remarkable uptick from nearly 20 percent in 2023 to an anticipated penetration rate of almost 50 percent.
The report, titled “Racing to 2030: Outlook on the Development of Global EV Industry,” was jointly issued by China EV100, a think tank specializing in new energy vehicles (NEVs), and McKinsey & Company. It underscores the unprecedented transformations witnessed in the global NEV sector over the past decade, encompassing shifts in market dynamics, consumer preferences, technological advancements, and supply chain frameworks.
While the global NEV penetration rate is on a swift ascent, the report highlights distinct regional disparities in NEV development. Projections suggest that by 2030, the penetration rates of new energy passenger cars in the European Union, South Korea, and the United States will surge to 65 percent, over 55 percent, and over 50 percent, respectively.
In contrast, Japan, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America are anticipated to achieve penetration rates of 27 percent, 10 percent, 30 percent, and 14 percent, respectively.
The report further predicts that China’s penetration rate will approach 70 percent by 2030, positioning Chinese auto companies among the top ten global sellers. Timur Gul, Chief Energy Technology Officer of the International Energy Agency, emphasized the evolution of the Chinese market into a new phase marked by commercialization, increasingly propelled by technological innovation and evolving consumer preferences.
The rapid progress in the NEV industry is intrinsically linked to continuous technological innovations in batteries and motors, fostering the electrification and widespread adoption of NEVs, the report underscores. Moreover, with advancements in technologies such as intelligent driving and generative AI, NEVs are poised to offer enhanced intelligent service experiences, it concludes.