The backlog of new power generation and energy storage seeking transmission connections in the United States surged in 2023, with almost 2,600 gigawatts (GW) of capacity actively seeking grid interconnection, according to recent research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab).
Over the past decade, active capacity in U.S. interconnection queues has soared nearly eight-fold, now exceeding twice the total installed capacity of the existing U.S. power plant fleet. Solar, battery storage, and wind energy exhibit significant interest, constituting over 95% of all active capacity by the end of 2023.
However, this mounting backlog has become a significant hurdle for project development, with proposed projects often stalled in lengthy and uncertain interconnection study processes, leading to a high rate of cancellation and withdrawal of interconnection requests.
While the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) introduced major interconnection reforms in 2023, yet to take effect in most regions, project developers continue to cite grid interconnection as a leading cause of project delays and cancellations.
Submitting an interconnection request and completing grid studies are just initial steps in the development process; projects also require agreements with various stakeholders and may face transmission upgrade requirements. Despite these challenges, data from interconnection queues offer insights into mid-term trends in the power sector and energy transition progress.
Berkeley Lab analyzed data from seven organized electricity markets (RTO/ISOs) and 44 balancing areas outside of RTO/ISOs, collectively representing over 95% of currently installed U.S. electricity generation. Their findings, presented in a new report, highlight trends in proposed power plants across technologies, timeframes, and regions.
The report includes new analytical additions, such as post-Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) queue volumes, analysis of energy-only versus network interconnection service trends, and summaries of key regulatory activities at federal and regional levels.
With U.S. electric demand projected to surge in the coming years due to a resurgence in manufacturing, demand from new data centers, electric vehicles, and building electrification, connecting new electric generation and storage is imperative. Energy storage, particularly, is poised to provide essential reliability services and is witnessing a surge in interconnection queues nationwide.
Joseph Rand, an Energy Policy Researcher at Berkeley Lab and lead author of the study, emphasized the significance of the growing interest and investment in new energy and storage development across the U.S., while also acknowledging grid interconnection as a persistent bottleneck.
The total capacity in the queue at the end of 2023, nearly 2.6 Terawatts (TW), exceeds twice the current U.S. generating capacity and is about eight times larger than the queue in 2014. Solar accounts for the majority of generation capacity, followed by wind and substantial offshore wind capacity.
Despite the surge in clean energy development, challenges persist, with many proposed projects in the queues unlikely to materialize. Concerns include increasing withdrawal rates, rising interconnection wait times, and persistent transmission challenges, underscoring the need for institutional process improvements.
The analysis was conducted by Berkeley Lab with support from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, particularly through the Interconnection Innovation Exchange (i2X) program.