The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its projections for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO), released last week.
According to the report, the EIA anticipates the WTI spot price to average $83.78 per barrel in 2024 and $82.48 per barrel in 2025. For the second quarter of 2024, the forecast stands at $85.30 per barrel, followed by $86.84 per barrel in the third quarter and $85.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The first quarter of 2024 saw the WTI spot price averaging $77.50 per barrel, as indicated by the STEO.
Looking ahead to 2025, the EIA projects a first-quarter average of $83.84 per barrel, followed by $82.50 per barrel for the second and third quarters, and $81.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
Comparing to the March STEO, the EIA previously forecasted a lower first-quarter average of $77.08 per barrel in 2024, with subsequent quarters seeing prices rise to $83.80, $84.50, and $83.50 respectively, resulting in an overall average of $82.15 per barrel for 2024. For 2025, the earlier projection suggested a first-quarter average of $82.84 per barrel, followed by $81.50, $79.50, and $77.50 per barrel in subsequent quarters, with an annual average of $80.30 per barrel.
J.P. Morgan, in a research note shared with Rigzone, predicts a more conservative outlook, with an average WTI crude price of $79 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025. Their quarterly forecasts range from $75 to $65 per barrel across both years.
Standard Chartered, in a report also shared with Rigzone, offers a more bullish perspective, forecasting NYMEX WTI futures to average $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, reaching $108 per barrel by the third quarter of 2025.
BofA Global Research recently updated its 2024 WTI price forecast to $81 per barrel, while BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projects an average of $82 per barrel for 2024 and $81 per barrel for 2025.
Insights from the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey indicate industry expectations, with an average forecast of $80.11 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices by the end of 2024. Responses ranged from $70 to $120 per barrel, with the surveyed WTI price standing at $82.52 per barrel.
Looking further ahead, executives from 135 oil and gas firms participating in the survey anticipate WTI prices to reach $79 per barrel in six months, $81 per barrel in one year, $83 per barrel in two years, and $90 per barrel in five years.