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EIA Raises WTI Oil Price Forecast, Industry Varies in Projections

by Krystal

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its projections for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO), released last week.

According to the report, the EIA anticipates the WTI spot price to average $83.78 per barrel in 2024 and $82.48 per barrel in 2025. For the second quarter of 2024, the forecast stands at $85.30 per barrel, followed by $86.84 per barrel in the third quarter and $85.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The first quarter of 2024 saw the WTI spot price averaging $77.50 per barrel, as indicated by the STEO.

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Looking ahead to 2025, the EIA projects a first-quarter average of $83.84 per barrel, followed by $82.50 per barrel for the second and third quarters, and $81.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

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Comparing to the March STEO, the EIA previously forecasted a lower first-quarter average of $77.08 per barrel in 2024, with subsequent quarters seeing prices rise to $83.80, $84.50, and $83.50 respectively, resulting in an overall average of $82.15 per barrel for 2024. For 2025, the earlier projection suggested a first-quarter average of $82.84 per barrel, followed by $81.50, $79.50, and $77.50 per barrel in subsequent quarters, with an annual average of $80.30 per barrel.

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J.P. Morgan, in a research note shared with Rigzone, predicts a more conservative outlook, with an average WTI crude price of $79 per barrel in 2024 and $71 per barrel in 2025. Their quarterly forecasts range from $75 to $65 per barrel across both years.

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Standard Chartered, in a report also shared with Rigzone, offers a more bullish perspective, forecasting NYMEX WTI futures to average $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, reaching $108 per barrel by the third quarter of 2025.

BofA Global Research recently updated its 2024 WTI price forecast to $81 per barrel, while BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, projects an average of $82 per barrel for 2024 and $81 per barrel for 2025.

Insights from the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey indicate industry expectations, with an average forecast of $80.11 per barrel for WTI crude oil prices by the end of 2024. Responses ranged from $70 to $120 per barrel, with the surveyed WTI price standing at $82.52 per barrel.

Looking further ahead, executives from 135 oil and gas firms participating in the survey anticipate WTI prices to reach $79 per barrel in six months, $81 per barrel in one year, $83 per barrel in two years, and $90 per barrel in five years.

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