The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has unveiled its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), projecting a continued ascent in U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as three ongoing LNG export ventures gear up for full-scale operations by the conclusion of 2025. Alongside this surge, the EIA anticipates a bolstering of natural gas exports via pipelines, primarily destined for Mexico.
According to the STEO projections, net exports of U.S. natural gas, calculated as exports minus imports, are slated to climb by 6% from 2023 to 2024, reaching 13.6 billion cubic feet per day (ft³/d). This upward trajectory persists into 2025, with net exports projected to surge by an additional 20%, peaking at 16.4 billion ft³/d.
The EIA’s forecast indicates a 2% uptick in U.S. LNG exports for 2024, averaging at 12.2 billion ft³/d, followed by a robust 18% surge in 2025, equivalent to 2.1 billion ft³/d. Pipeline-bound exports are expected to grow by 3% in 2024 and an additional 4% in 2025. Meanwhile, the agency foresees a marginal decrease of 0.4 billion ft³/d in pipeline imports for 2024, with a slight uptick of 0.1 billion ft³/d projected for 2025.
In the years 2024-2025, the EIA anticipates that existing U.S. LNG export facilities will maintain similar utilization rates as observed in 2023. Routine maintenance is typically scheduled during the spring and autumn months, coinciding with lower global LNG demand and mild temperatures. Notably, the EIA predicts a temporary decline in LNG exports in April and May 2024 due to scheduled maintenance at two of the three trains at the Freeport LNG export facility. Later in the same year, the commencement of LNG production at Plaquemines LNG Phase I and Corpus Christi Stage 3 is expected, with initial cargoes set for loading by year-end. Additionally, in 2025, the developers of Golden Pass LNG aim to commission the first two trains of their new three-train LNG export facility.
The EIA also anticipates a surge in U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico as several pipelines within Mexico, including Tula-Villa de Reyes, Tuxpan-Tula, and Cuxtal Phase II connecting to the Energía Mayakan pipeline on the Yucatán Peninsula, reach full operational capacity during 2024-2025. These pipelines, which commenced partial service in 2022-2023, are poised to operate at their full potential. Furthermore, flows via the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan underwater pipeline are expected to witness a slight increase in 2024 as it begins supplying natural gas from the U.S. to Mexico’s inaugural LNG export project, Fast LNG Altamira.
Despite relative stability over the past two years (2022-2023), averaging 8.1 billion ft³/d, U.S. natural gas pipeline imports from Canada are forecasted to remain a pivotal supply source, especially for the U.S. Midwest region during winter months.
As for U.S. LNG imports, primarily catering to New England and typically peaking during winter, a slight decline was noted in 2023, attributed largely to unusually warm winter conditions. The EIA expects LNG imports to hover around 0.1 billion ft³/d in 2024-2025, serving as a supplementary supply source during periods of heightened demand, particularly in winter.