Renewable energy, once a modest player in the global power arena, is now on a trajectory to significantly reshape the energy landscape. Previously stuck at around 20% of global power generation, renewables, including hydropower, now command a 30% share, with forecasts indicating a steady increase of 10-15 percentage points every decade.
The rise of solar and wind energy has been pivotal in this transformation, with both technologies experiencing exponential growth since 2010. Solar and wind collectively reached 15% of global generation in 2022, up from just 5% in 2013 and under 2% in the mid-2000s.
Projections from organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BP suggest that renewables could represent nearly 50% of global power generation by 2030 and continue to climb to 60-70% by 2050. These forecasts are bolstered by substantial investments in renewable energy, which have surged from $50 billion in 2000 to $670 billion in 2023, driving the addition of 560 gigawatts of new capacity.
While renewables have largely replaced nuclear and oil in the power mix, coal and gas have remained relatively stable. However, the IEA anticipates a decline in coal-based power in the coming years, with renewables stepping in to cover the growth in global power demand.
Beyond electricity generation, the broader energy mix remains reliant on fossil fuels, with renewables comprising only 16% of primary energy supply. Limited electrification means that renewables currently represent a mere 6% of the overall energy mix.
However, ambitious scenarios envision renewables playing a more substantial role in the future. In the IEA and BP net-zero scenarios, renewables could reach 60% of power generation by 2030 and over 70% of primary energy by 2050, driven by increased electrification and ambitious climate targets.
Overall, the trajectory of renewables suggests a significant shift in the global energy landscape, with renewable energy poised to play a dominant role in the transition to a low-carbon future.