The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects a modest uptick in the nation’s total electricity generation capacity, primarily driven by solar energy expansion.
According to the monthly report, which offers forecasts for energy production and consumption up to 2025, the authors anticipate a 3% increase in US power generation capacity for 2024, amounting to 114 billion kWh, followed by an additional 1% growth, equivalent to 33 billion kWh, in 2025. Renewables, particularly solar power, are poised to contribute significantly to this growth, with utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants anticipated to generate 41% more electricity in 2024, totaling 66 billion kWh, following the incorporation of 19GW of new solar generation capacity in late 2023.
Furthermore, the report predicts the addition of 37GW of new solar capacity in the current year, projecting a 25% surge in the country’s total solar generation by 2025, amounting to 58 billion kWh.
These optimistic growth forecasts in the solar sector stand in contrast to projections for wind energy, with the EIA estimating a 5% increase in electricity generation in 2024 and a 3% rise in 2025. A visual representation included in the report, featuring historical data from 2022 and 2023 alongside forecasted figures for 2024 and 2025, underscores the notably faster expansion of solar capacity compared to other renewable sources over the next two years, nearly matching wind’s total scope by the close of 2025.
EIA data also indicates a considerably higher growth rate in the US’ consumption of electricity from solar sources compared to other forms of power generation. While consumption of solar electricity surged by 14.8% between 2022 and 2023, exceeding the 42.9% growth in biodiesel and renewable diesel, projections indicate a reversal between 2023 and 2024. During this period, the growth rate of solar electricity consumption is expected to accelerate to 30.4%, while consumption growth for renewable diesel is forecasted to decline to 12.8%.
This anticipated growth marks a positive development for the US solar sector, which has seen substantial investments in power generation as part of efforts to enhance the nation’s energy independence. Notably, Wiki-Solar announced this month that developers have installed over 20GW of new utility-scale solar in the US since January 2023.
The burgeoning solar industry has also bolstered the manufacturing sector as the US aims to diminish its dependence on foreign-made products, particularly from China, in support of solar initiatives. Recent findings from E2 reveal that since the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the US has added over 100,000 jobs in clean energy manufacturing, with more than a quarter of these positions in the solar sector.