The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices for 2024 and 2025, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
In the May STEO, the EIA projects the WTI spot price to average $83.05 per barrel in 2024 and $80.88 per barrel in 2025. This is a downward revision from the April STEO, which had forecasted averages of $83.78 per barrel for 2024 and $82.48 per barrel for 2025.
Breaking down the 2024 and 2025 projections, the EIA anticipates the WTI spot price will average $84.76 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $85.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $84.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter. For 2025, the EIA forecasts $83.50 per barrel in the first quarter, $81.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $80.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $78.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
The report noted that the WTI spot price averaged $77.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024 and $77.58 per barrel overall in 2023.
The previous April STEO had higher projections for the same periods: $85.30 per barrel for the second quarter of 2024, $86.84 per barrel for the third quarter, and $85.17 per barrel for the fourth quarter. For 2025, the earlier forecast predicted $83.84 per barrel in the first quarter, $82.50 per barrel for both the second and third quarters, and $81.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
Standard Chartered, in a report sent to Rigzone last week, projected the nearby future NYMEX WTI basis price to average $95 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $104 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $100 per barrel in the second quarter, and $108 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025. The company expects the commodity to average $106 per barrel in 2025, $125 per barrel in 2026, and $112 per barrel in 2027.
Earlier this month, Morningstar DBRS analysts increased their full-year 2024 WTI oil price forecast to $75 per barrel from $65 per barrel, citing actual year-to-date pricing, a more favorable global supply/demand balance, and a higher risk premium due to geopolitical tensions. However, they maintained their 2025 and 2026 forecasts at $60 per barrel. They also reaffirmed their long-term price band for WTI oil at $50 to $70 per barrel, reflecting the marginal cost of new supplies and a balanced global market with moderate OPEC+ production containment and modest demand growth.
In a research note dated April 26, J.P. Morgan projected the WTI crude price to average $79 per barrel this year and $71 per barrel in 2025. The report forecasts the commodity to average $80 per barrel in the second and third quarters of this year, $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.