Kazakhstan has reignited a contentious issue within the OPEC+ group by asserting its desire to increase crude oil production in 2025, according to a report by Interfax on Tuesday. This statement comes despite Kazakhstan’s membership in the organization, which aims to stabilize global crude oil markets.
The Kazakh energy ministry clarified that it had not officially requested an increase in its production quota for 2025. However, Kazakhstan expressed its intention to boost oil output ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for June 1. This meeting will precede a comprehensive review of members’ production capacities due by the end of June, which will serve as the basis for any production cuts in 2025. Sources within OPEC+ have confirmed that discussions on these baseline figures will not take place during the June 1 meeting, as not all members are prepared for that conversation yet.
The determination of baseline figures, crucial for allocating production cuts among OPEC+ members, has been a point of contention in recent years, threatening the unity of the group. Last summer, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) challenged OPEC’s voluntary production cuts, arguing that its baseline was “unfair” and that it should be permitted to increase its output in line with its expanding production capacity. Speculation even arose that the UAE, OPEC’s third-largest producer, might exit the group if baselines were not adjusted upwards, potentially undermining OPEC’s influence.
In response, OPEC+ adjusted the UAE’s quota to 3.219 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2024. The UAE’s state oil company, ADNOC, recently updated its maximum crude oil production capacity on its website to 4.85 million bpd ahead of the June 1 meeting, with plans to expand this capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027.