Fitch Group, in a recent report to Rigzone, shared BMI analysts’ latest forecasts for Brent oil prices through 2028.
BMI projects Brent prices to average $85 per barrel in 2024, declining to $82 per barrel in 2025, and stabilizing at $81 per barrel from 2026 to 2028, according to the report.
The Bloomberg Consensus, also featured in the report, forecasts Brent to average $84 per barrel in 2024, $80 in 2025, $79 in 2026, $73 in 2027, and $72 in 2028. BMI’s contributions influence the Bloomberg Consensus, as highlighted.
Previous reports from Fitch Group in early June and late March mirrored these BMI forecasts and Bloomberg Consensus projections.
BMI analysts reaffirmed their 2024 forecast of Brent crude averaging $85 per barrel, with expectations tempered by weaker year-to-date performance posing downside risks. They anticipate strength during summer months to offset later softness.
Looking ahead to 2025, BMI hints at a potential downward revision due to emerging supply surpluses in upcoming quarters.
The report notes Brent’s recovery from May losses, rising from $77.5 per barrel on June 4 to approximately $86 per barrel, partly correcting from what analysts deem an excessive post-OPEC+ sell-off.
Firmer fundamentals and seasonal demand increases are boosting prices, particularly with reduced MENA exports and ongoing OPEC+ production limits. This tightening supply-demand balance is evident in market indicators like the Dated Brent to Frontline swap turning positive.
The term structure has also strengthened, with backwardation deepening, reflecting expectations of tightening physical supply over the summer.
Market sentiment has improved, with managed money in Brent futures showing increased long positions, though historic ratios remain low. Confidence in sustained price rallies remains cautious amidst tepid global economic growth and anticipated OPEC+ production increases from October.
Looking to 2025, BMI expects softened oil demand, particularly in developed markets, where structural declines offset cyclical economic boosts. Emerging market demand growth is projected to slow from 2.9% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, influencing Brent price declines next year.
In a separate report by Standard Chartered Bank, analysts noted Brent’s rapid recovery, filling the chart gap and settling at $86.60 per barrel by July 1, the highest since April.
Standard Chartered projects Brent to average $98 per barrel in Q3 2024 and $106 in Q4, with a 2025 forecast of $109 per barrel, driven by continued supply deficits and narrowing spreads.
The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on Brent, expecting further price increases despite initial market pessimism influenced by weak U.S. fuel demand signals earlier this year.
Standard Chartered’s SCORPIO model anticipates a weekly increase to $88.30 per barrel by July 8, buoyed by technical indicators and favorable Brent spreads.
Overall, both reports indicate cautious optimism amid evolving market dynamics, with expectations of sustained but moderated price increases driven by supply-demand fundamentals and economic forecasts.