According to Reuters’ sources, Saudi Arabian crude oil‘s market share in China is expected to recover next month. After four consecutive months of decline, Saudi crude exports to China are anticipated to rise in August, marking the first increase since May. In July, Saudi Arabia exported 36 million barrels of oil to China, equivalent to just over 1 million barrels per day, based on shipping data from Kpler. However, traders are forecasting that August’s exports could reach at least 44 million barrels.
Previously China’s largest oil supplier, Saudi Arabia lost that position to Russia last year. In 2023, Russia shipped 107.02 million metric tons of crude to China, a 24% increase from 2022, while Saudi Arabia exported 85.96 million tons, a 2% decline compared to the previous year. Despite this, Saudi Arabia remains the largest oil supplier to Asia overall.
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This anticipated rebound in Saudi oil imports by China follows a recent report highlighting Saudi Arabia’s overall oil exports falling to a ten-month low in June. This decline was attributed to increased domestic consumption during peak demand and continued robust Russian shipments to Asian markets shared with OPEC+ partners.
The expected increase in Chinese imports of Saudi oil also coincides with Saudi Arabia’s decision, reported by Reuters, to lower official oil prices for Asian customers for the second consecutive month. The price adjustment for its flagship Arab Light blend for August loading is noted to be the lowest since March, making Saudi oil more competitively priced after months of higher pricing.