The United States could see a significant rise in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity, potentially increasing from approximately 2,000 barrels per day (b/d) to nearly 30,000 b/d by 2024, assuming all planned capacity expansions proceed as scheduled, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project is expected to commence this summer, aiming to produce up to about 10,000 b/d of SAF. Meanwhile, Diamond Green Diesel anticipates its Port Arthur SAF project to reach a production level of about 15,000 b/d by year-end.
SAF serves as an alternative to traditional petroleum jet fuel, derived from agricultural and waste sources, and is used in blends with conventional jet fuel. Increased investment in SAF has been driven by initiatives such as the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), federal tax credits, and state-level programs promoting the use of sustainable fuels.
The White House has set an ambitious target to fulfill 100% of US aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050. In 2023, approximately 1.6 million b/d of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the US, with EIA projecting demand to exceed 2.0 million b/d by 2050.
EIA tracks SAF production data within the “Other Biofuels” category of its Petroleum Supply Monthly report. This category encompasses various biofuels, including renewable heating oil, naphtha, propane, gasoline, and other emerging biofuels in different stages of development and commercialization.
Historically, US production of Other Biofuels has been minimal, but it has been growing, driven in part by the increasing production of renewable naphtha and propane from the expanding renewable diesel industry. Production of Other Biofuels rose from 2,000 b/d in 2020 to 19,000 b/d by 2023.
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SAF production has traditionally constituted a small portion of Other Biofuels production due to limited production capacity. At the beginning of 2024, US SAF production capacity was only around 2,000 b/d, supported by just two operational plants: World Energy‘s facility in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewables’ plant in Great Falls, Montana.
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts a 50% increase in US Other Biofuels production in 2024, with a projected nearly doubling from 2024 to 2025. This growth is primarily attributed to expanding SAF production capacity in the country.
The expected rise in Other Biofuels production—from 19,000 b/d in 2023 to 51,000 b/d by 2025—is largely driven by the increasing capacity for SAF production in the US.