As of July 23, 2024, petcoke prices have experienced some downward pressure due to increased freight costs but remain largely stable. Following a recent decline in coal prices, discounts on petcoke have decreased, bringing them back into the lower end of the neutral range.
Currently, the discount for 6.5% sulfur petcoke, with a free-on-board (FOB) price of $64, is 52% compared to API4 coal, priced at $106 for the third quarter of 2024. Similarly, the cost of CIF ARA 6.5% sulfur petcoke, sold at $89, reflects a 34% discount compared to API2 coal, which is priced at $108 for the same period.
Petcoke prices are expected to fluctuate within the $62-70 range, facing resistance at $68, $75, $95, $105, $115, and $135. Support levels are identified at $60, $55, $45, and $38, with long-term support at $38. For 2024, prices are forecasted to vary between $60 and $115.
Freight costs in the ARA region have surged since last month. This increase is partly due to the ongoing conflict involving Israel and the Houthi in Yemen, which has driven up transportation premiums. As of July 23, 2024, USGC ARA freight rates have risen to $25.