Two decades ago, China introduced the “Angola model,” offering oil-backed loans to Angola and other African countries for infrastructure projects such as roads, hydroelectric dams, and railways. From 2000 to 2022, Angola borrowed $45 billion from China, repaying part of this debt with oil.
However, this model has diminished in effectiveness. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace reports that Angola has dropped from being China’s second-largest crude oil supplier in 2010 to eighth place. The decline is attributed to aging oilfields, years of underinvestment, poor infrastructure, and geopolitical instability affecting both large producers like Angola and Nigeria, as well as smaller ones such as South Sudan.
In response, China is shifting its focus to countries with more stable infrastructure, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. Meanwhile, other nations are stepping in to fill the void left by China’s reduced influence and the West’s waning presence in Africa.
Russia’s growing role on the continent has become increasingly visible over recent years. Many African governments are now fostering closer economic, diplomatic, and security ties with Russia, particularly as the West isolates Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey, a close European ally of Russia, is also expanding its presence in Africa. To enhance its influence and energy security, Turkey plans to send the 86-meter research vessel Oruc Reis to explore offshore oil blocks in Somalia next month, according to Bloomberg. This move aims to diversify Turkey’s crude supply and bolster its growing ties with the continent.
Batu Coşkun, a research fellow at the Libyan Sadeq Institute in Ankara, explains, “Africa provides Turkey a platform to apply its new foreign policy tools and objectives. This includes both soft power, such as aid and education, and trade and economic relations.”
Turkey’s presence in Somalia has already strengthened with the operation of its largest overseas military base and management of the capital’s port and airport by Turkish companies. Additionally, Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar has supplied Somalia with TB2 drones to aid its fight against the Islamist group al-Shabaab. Earlier this year, Turkey’s parliament approved a motion from President Erdogan to send naval support to Somali waters amid rising piracy linked to Red Sea insecurity.
Omar Mahmood, a senior analyst for East Africa at the International Crisis Group, notes, “Somalia offers Turkey a strategic location to extend its influence in the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean. Turkey’s engagement with Somalia serves as both a test case and a stepping stone for its broader strategy in Africa.”
Over the past decade, Turkey has provided Somalia with more than $1 billion in aid. Although this may seem modest given Somalia’s GDP of just over $10 billion, it underscores Turkey’s commitment to expanding its influence on the continent.
In addition to Somalia, Turkey has been actively engaging with other African nations. Earlier this year, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Niger, where he signed multiple agreements after the country’s military government ordered the closure of a U.S. military base and expelled French troops. Niger has resumed oil exports following a deal with Benin after a recent border dispute.
Benin Energy Minister Samou Adambi confirmed the resumption of crude shipments, saying, “Loading of crude started this morning.” Niger relies on the 1,950 km-long Niger-Benin Export Pipeline, built by China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) as part of a $4.6 billion investment. This pipeline, essential for repaying a $400 million oil-for-cash loan from CNPC, is set to increase Niger’s crude production five-fold and establish the country as a significant exporter.
Additionally, Turkish mining company MTA is exploring for gold in Niger, and Turkey has held discussions with Algeria, the Ivory Coast, and Zimbabwe in recent months. Afro Turk SA is attempting to enter Burkina Faso’s gold market, and Turkish Airlines has expanded its routes to various remote locations across the continent.
Turkey’s rapid advancement in Africa is largely attributed to President Erdogan’s centralized leadership style. Coşkun explains, “If Erdogan approves a deal, it moves forward without the extensive scrutiny seen in the U.S. Congress.”
As China and Western influence wane, Turkey and Russia are emerging as key players in shaping Africa’s future.