Global offshore wind projects have recently encountered significant challenges due to inflationary pressures and disruptions in the supply chain. These issues have led to postponed permitting processes, delayed auctions, and a slow build-up in supply chains. Despite these obstacles, the sector managed to grow in 2023, with new capacity additions increasing by 7% compared to the previous year. This growth is expected to accelerate, with new capacity additions projected to rise by 9% to over 11 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the year. Rystad Energy predicts that the offshore wind sector will continue to expand steadily, with global installations, excluding mainland China, expected to surpass 520 GW by 2040.
Europe is set to play a pivotal role in this growth, particularly through its reliance on floating wind to meet ambitious national targets and maximize offshore resources. By 2040, Europe is expected to account for over 70% of global floating wind installations. Although some delays beyond 2030 are anticipated, there will likely be a strong push to accelerate deployment. As a result, floating wind capacity is projected to approach 90 GW by 2040, with the UK, France, and Portugal leading the way. Asia, excluding mainland China, is also expected to play a crucial role in advancing floating wind technology, capturing 20% of global installations by 2040.
The floating wind sector has seen a recent surge in project announcements, but it faces supply chain constraints similar to those in the bottom-fixed segment, where wind turbines are installed on fixed foundations in shallow waters. These challenges could slow the advancement of floating wind technology in the short term, with capacity estimates of less than 7 GW by 2030. To overcome these hurdles, increased government support is essential.
The global offshore wind sector is experiencing robust growth, driven by increased investment and auction activity. However, supply chain bottlenecks present significant challenges to further expansion. While ambitious targets have boosted investor confidence, addressing logistical issues is crucial to ensuring that offshore wind can play a key role in the energy transition. This will help the technology mature and foster a supportive ecosystem that inspires investor confidence.
Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst at Rystad Energy, highlighted the future of the bottom-fixed market, predicting that the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands will emerge as dominant players. These countries’ proximity to the North Sea and extensive maritime areas provide a strong foundation for success in offshore wind, bolstered by their installation and net-zero targets. Together, these three countries are projected to account for 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040, followed by the US with less than 40 GW. The future of the US market, however, is contingent on its political landscape, with concerns that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, his administration might significantly impede offshore wind development.
Between 2025 and 2030, significant growth is expected in the Americas, led by the US, beginning with nearly 2 GW of installed capacity in 2025. Asia, excluding mainland China, will follow, with 7 GW in 2025, reaching almost 28 GW by 2030, with Taiwan (China), South Korea, and Vietnam emerging as major markets in the region. Europe is projected to have 41 GW of installed capacity by 2025 and over 112 GW by 2030, driven by a steady stream of projects awarded through competitive auctions.
Looking ahead to 2030-2035, further growth is anticipated in Asia, excluding mainland China, followed by the Americas and Europe. During this period, Latin America, particularly Brazil and Colombia, is expected to begin contributing to offshore wind capacity in the Americas. Rystad Energy’s long-term forecast for the floating wind sector differs from the upward trend observed in the bottom-fixed market. From 2025 to 2030, only Asia and Europe are expected to be actively installing floating wind capacity. By 2030, Europe is expected to have installed nearly 5 GW of floating wind, while Asia, excluding mainland China, is projected to add 2 GW.
In the subsequent five-year period, from 2030 to 2035, installations are expected to ramp up significantly. Europe is projected to add 20 GW of floating wind capacity, and Asia, excluding mainland China, up to 5 GW. Floating wind projects in other regions are not anticipated until the 2035-2040 period, when the technology is expected to mature. By 2040, Europe is predicted to have installed over 65 GW of floating wind capacity, while installations in Asia, excluding mainland China, will have reached 17 GW.