Gas prices are on the decline, and analysts believe they might continue to fall, potentially bringing the national average for a gallon of regular to $3 for the first time in three years. The current average price at the pump has dropped more than 20 cents since May to $3.38. This is about 47 cents lower than it was a year ago, according to NPR. A spokesperson from AAA told USA Today that prices are “falling almost a penny a day now.”
Last year, high temperatures caused gas prices to rise as Texas refineries had to cut back on production. Although this summer has also seen record-breaking temperatures, Texas and Louisiana, where most U.S. refineries are located, have avoided the worst impacts. However, hurricanes remain a potential threat. For instance, Hurricane Idalia temporarily disrupted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico last year. “The late-season wild card is always hurricanes,” said Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst for GasBuddy, according to NPR. “If a hurricane makes landfall in a refining area, it can really disrupt things.”
International factors could also influence gas prices. Iran’s oil production has not been affected by its support for groups opposed to Israel, which is backed by the U.S. “If Iran becomes more involved, it could be problematic,” said AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross. Meanwhile, China’s slowing economy has reduced its oil demand, and analysts expect OPEC+ to cut its production reductions this fall. Despite a drop in domestic demand, the U.S. is producing record amounts of oil. De Haan suggests that prices at the pump could fall below $3 a gallon by Thanksgiving and remain there into next year.