Gas prices have fallen to their lowest level in three years, providing relief to drivers and potentially benefiting Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election. Over Labor Day weekend, prices at the pump continued their downward trend, with expectations of further declines through November.
Since reaching a peak of $3.69 per gallon in April, gas prices have steadily decreased, making for a more affordable summer for motorists. As of September 1, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.33, down 15 cents from the previous month and over 50 cents from the same time last year, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Prices ranged from a high of $4.65 per gallon in California to a low of $2.86 in Mississippi.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, reported on X that the national average price of gas had dropped to $3.29 per gallon, marking the lowest summer level since 2021. De Haan had predicted this decline just in time for many Americans’ final road trip of the summer.
Experts, including De Haan, anticipate that gas prices will continue to decrease in the coming weeks. This is due to U.S. refineries handling heatwaves better than last year and a quieter-than-expected hurricane season. In 2023, Hurricane Idalia temporarily disrupted production by forcing Chevron to evacuate staff from three oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, contributing to higher gas prices.
“While many Americans may wish summer could last forever, the good news is we’re seeing perhaps the best opportunity in years for the national average to fall below $3 per gallon,” De Haan said.
Demand for gasoline typically decreases in the fall and winter as people travel less. Starting in mid-September, gas stations switch to a less expensive winter blend, which helps lower prices.
Although presidents have little control over gas prices, which are influenced by global events, oil production decisions in other countries, and extreme weather, they are often blamed when prices rise. In 2022, when gas prices peaked at $5.02 per gallon, Republicans, including Donald Trump, were quick to blame President Joe Biden.
Despite lower inflation, economic concerns persist among Americans. Recent polls show that 41% of Americans believe the U.S. economy is still heading in the wrong direction, with 93% blaming Biden and 88% holding Harris responsible to some degree.
This means that Harris, who has seen an improvement in her popularity since announcing her presidential bid, must be cautious with gas prices. Trump continues to push a narrative that blames the Biden-Harris administration for rising inflation during the post-pandemic recovery.
In a recent campaign ad, Trump blamed “Bidenomics” for the “alarming spike in inflation” and gas prices reaching “an all-time high” under the Biden-Harris administration. He claimed that “two-thirds of Americans are struggling to make ends meet, and Kamala Harris is to blame.”
As the election approaches, Trump is likely to continue focusing on Americans’ negative feelings about the economy, blaming Harris and Biden for economic struggles.
Given the circumstances, could Harris turn falling gas prices into a strength in November? Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, told CNN that the winner of the presidential election would likely benefit from lower energy prices. “Whoever gets elected will take credit for it,” Kloza said.
Harris is already claiming lower gas prices as a victory for the Biden-Harris administration. On Friday, she wrote on X that “inflation is down to its lowest level in over three years. Gas prices are down nearly 50 cents compared to Labor Day last year.”
However, it may be too early to celebrate. With hurricane season ongoing, there is still a risk of major storms disrupting oil production. But the coinciding presence of two climate phenomena, the Pacific Niña and the Atlantic Niña, is expected to mitigate this risk and discourage the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Gas prices remain a significant issue for California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who has been advocating for legislation to reduce prices in the nation’s most expensive state. On Saturday, Newsom called the legislature into a special session to address gas prices, extending the deadline for lawmakers to decide on an energy package until November 10.
One of the bills Newsom is pushing would regulate refinery maintenance to prevent supply problems that could lead to price spikes. “It should be common sense for gas refineries to plan ahead and backfill supplies when they go down for maintenance to avoid price spikes,” Newsom said in a statement. “But these price spikes are actually profit spikes for Big Oil, and they’re using the same old scare tactics to maintain the status quo.”