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USA EIA Lowers WTI Oil Price Predictions

by Krystal

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecasts in its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released recently.

In this latest STEO, the EIA estimates that the WTI spot price will average $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025. This is a decrease from its August report, which projected prices of $80.21 per barrel for this year and $81.21 per barrel for 2025.

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The EIA now forecasts the WTI spot price will average $78.23 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, and $77.64 per barrel in the fourth quarter. For early 2025, the predictions are $79.02 per barrel in the first quarter, $80.50 in the second and third quarters, and $78.50 in the fourth quarter.

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In the previous report, the EIA had expected WTI prices of $79.95 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $81.47 in the fourth quarter, and $84.16 in the first quarter of next year.

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Additionally, the EIA has set the average WTI spot prices for the first quarter of 2024 at $77.50 per barrel, $81.77 for the second quarter, and $77.58 for the entire year of 2023.

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A report from Standard Chartered Bank, shared with Rigzone, predicts that the NYMEX WTI price will average $79 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024, rising to $86 in the first quarter of 2025, and reaching $90 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Earlier this week, J.P. Morgan’s Commodities Research team projected that the WTI spot price will average $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71 in 2025. They anticipate prices of $80 in the third quarter of 2024 and $76 in the fourth quarter.

Last week, a Fitch Group report forecast the front-month WTI crude price to average $78 per barrel in 2024 and $75 in 2025.

In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on September 12, Rania Gule, a Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, highlighted the potential for significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, emphasizing OPEC‘s influential role. Gule noted that oil prices face challenges in recovering past the $75 mark.

She explained that the initial resistance level is at $67.11. For a recovery to begin, the price must close above this level consistently. Once surpassed, $70 becomes the next target, with $71.46 as a key milestone.

Gule concluded that a return to $75.27 is possible, but would likely depend on substantial changes in current market conditions.

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