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How Will Turkey’s LNG Deals Affect Turkmenistan’s Gas Exports?

by Krystal

Turkmenistan’s plans to establish a swap deal to send its natural gas to Turkey—and potentially on to Europe—have faced setbacks. This comes as Turkey has secured its third long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchase agreement in just five months.

On September 18, Turkey’s state gas importer, Botas, finalized an agreement with France’s TotalEnergies to import 1.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG per year from the United States starting in 2027. This follows a similar deal with Shell earlier in September, which covers 4 bcm per year, also beginning in 2027. Additionally, a third agreement was signed in May with ExxonMobil, though details of that contract remain undisclosed.

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Neither Turkish nor Turkmen officials have commented on how these new LNG contracts might affect Turkey’s plans to import gas from Turkmenistan. However, it is clear that as Turkey secures more gas from other sources, its need for Turkmen gas may decrease, impacting its ability to meet domestic demand and export commitments.

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Despite this, Turkey could still consider importing Turkmen gas, which would be sold at a trading hub that Turkish officials are looking to establish in northwestern Turkey. In a television interview on September 20, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar mentioned that Turkey can receive up to 80 million bcm of gas each year but only requires around 50 bcm to satisfy its domestic needs.

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“If there is an export opportunity and we can reach an agreement with customers in Europe, we can import LNG from many different sources,” he said. He highlighted potential suppliers such as the United States, Qatar, Oman, and Trinidad and Tobago, but did not reference Turkmenistan.

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Just a few months ago, the situation appeared more optimistic. In March, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan signed a preliminary agreement for a swap deal involving Turkmenistan, Turkey, and Iran. However, hopes for a final agreement faltered, reportedly due to difficulties in negotiating a purchase price.

Turkmenistan’s challenges may benefit Azerbaijan. The failure of Turkey and Turkmenistan to finalize a gas swap deal could allow Azerbaijan to strengthen its position. Baku’s gas production has increased, enabling it to meet its domestic needs and export commitments without relying on Turkmen gas.

Yet, uncertainty remains about Azerbaijan’s ability to meet its commitment to the European Union to double exports to Europe to 20 bcm per year by 2027. With Turkey increasingly turning to LNG to fulfill its gas demand, there is a possibility that Botas may not need to import as much gas from Azerbaijan. This would potentially allow Azerbaijan to redirect more gas supplies to EU countries. Last year, Turkey imported 10.3 bcm of gas from Azerbaijan, accounting for 20 percent of its total imports, an increase from 8.7 bcm in 2022.

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