Russia anticipates that global oil demand will increase by at least 5% from current levels by 2050. This growth could reach as high as 7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, according to Pavel Sorokin, Russia’s First Deputy Energy Minister. Sorokin made these statements during an energy forum in Russia on Thursday.
He emphasized that Russia is prepared to supply additional crude oil volumes if necessary. By 2030, he estimates that global oil consumption will rise by 5 to 7 million bpd, representing an increase of 4.5% to 5.5% from today’s demand.
According to Sorokin, Russia plans to produce 540 million metric tons of oil, or 10.84 million bpd, by 2030 under its baseline scenario. However, this goal is subject to Russia’s commitments under the OPEC+ production agreement. Last year, Russia’s oil production reached 531 million tons, equivalent to 10.66 million bpd.
Sorokin explained that the 540 million tons figure is a baseline projection that considers both cooperation with OPEC+ partners and market demands. He stated, “We do not aim to flood the market if it does not need it. But we are also ready to provide additional resources if required.”
Russia’s forecast for demand growth aligns closely with estimates from OPEC, its partners in the OPEC+ agreement. In the recently released 2024 World Oil Outlook (WOO), OPEC projects that global oil demand will increase from about 103 million bpd currently to over 120 million bpd by 2050.
OPEC’s report suggests a long-term increase in global oil demand of nearly 18 million bpd, rising from 102.2 million bpd in 2023 to 120.1 million bpd by 2050. The organization highlighted in the report’s introduction that the idea of phasing out oil and gas is unrealistic and disconnected from reality.
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