Crude oil and oil product shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have plunged by more than 50% in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to a new report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Friday. The strait, located at the southern entrance of the Red Sea, is a crucial chokepoint for global energy trade. Disruptions in this region can lead to major delays in supply chains, increased shipping costs, and spikes in global energy prices.
Tensions in the area have been high since early 2024. The decline in Red Sea traffic is largely attributed to a series of attacks on commercial vessels by Yemen’s Houthi militia, which began in November 2023. As a result, many shipping companies are now choosing to bypass the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opting for the longer and more costly route around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s southern tip. This detour has led to a significant drop in oil flows through the Red Sea, falling from an average of 8.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 to just 4.0 million bpd in 2024.
Meanwhile, oil shipments via the Cape of Good Hope surged to 9.2 million bpd in the first eight months of 2024, compared to 6.0 million bpd in 2023. This shift has placed additional strain on global energy markets, as Europe and other regions depend heavily on these shipping routes for their energy needs.
In August, Trafigura, one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, estimated that oil tankers alone would consume an extra 200,000 bpd of fuel oil this year due to the detour, marking a 4.5% increase in annual emissions from oil tankers.
Chokepoints like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal are essential for maintaining the flow of oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf to global markets. Even brief disruptions to these narrow sea routes can have widespread effects on supply, leading to higher costs and potentially destabilizing energy prices worldwide.
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