Iran’s crude oil exports have significantly slowed in October, following the country’s missile attack on Israel on October 1. The sharp drop comes as Iran prepares for potential retaliation, with concerns rising over Israeli strikes targeting Iranian oil facilities. As a result, the country’s exports have fallen to approximately 600,000 barrels per day in the first 10 days of the month, marking a steep decline compared to previous months.
In recent months, Iran typically loaded 5-8 oil tankers during this period. However, in early October, only 3-4 tankers were loaded, according to Armen Azizian, an oil risk analyst at Vortexa. Satellite images and data from tanker tracking company TankerTrackers show that Iran has also moved several empty tankers away from Kharg Island as a precautionary measure, further hampering its export operations.
“The first 10 days have been very slow compared to what we usually see,” said Azizian, as reported by Argus. “Normally, we see an average of 5-8 tankers loading, a mix of VLCCs and Suezmaxes. But so far, only 3-4 have been loaded.”
Iran’s oil exports hit a peak of 1.83 million barrels per day in September, but October’s output is expected to fall significantly. Even if loading resumes at a normal rate, the country is projected to reach only around 1.35 million barrels per day by the end of the month.
This sharp decline underscores the vulnerability of oil exports during periods of geopolitical tension. Analysts suggest that OPEC members with spare capacity, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, would be able to compensate for any shortage caused by the disruption in Iran’s oil exports.
In the meantime, Iran has made offers to China, one of its few remaining crude oil buyers due to sanctions, to sell oil at a smaller discount to Brent crude prices. Iran has raised its offer by as much as $1 more per barrel in an attempt to maintain its market presence.
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