Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers has been expanding rapidly, according to new research, with the fleet now responsible for transporting up to 70% of the country’s seaborne oil, despite efforts by Western nations to curb Moscow’s wartime energy revenues.
A report from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) published Monday reveals that the amount of Russian oil being carried by poorly maintained and underinsured tankers has nearly doubled within the last year, reaching 4.1 million barrels a day by June.
The findings highlight the challenges faced by Ukraine’s Western allies in their attempts to weaken Russia’s economy in a bid to pressure Moscow into ending its war in Ukraine.
In December 2022, the UK, along with the G7 countries, Australia, and the EU, imposed a $60-per-barrel price cap. This cap was aimed at restricting Western companies from transporting or providing services to Russian crude oil shipments, which would limit Russia’s ability to sell oil—a trade heavily reliant on Western-owned and insured tankers.
At the time, the measure was seen as a balanced approach to avoid a full oil embargo that could have triggered a surge in global oil prices.
However, Russia quickly found a way around these sanctions by using a so-called “shadow fleet”—a collection of older tankers with unclear ownership that allows it to sell large volumes of oil above the price cap.
The KSE report estimates that Russia has invested over $10 billion into this shadow fleet since early 2022. “This strategy has significantly weakened the leverage of the sanctions regime,” the report stated.
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a maritime data provider, more than 630 tankers—some over 20 years old—are involved in transporting Russian oil, as well as Iranian crude, which is also subject to sanctions.
Western governments have been working to crack down on Russia’s shadow fleet. Last month, the UK announced sanctions on 10 ships believed to be key players in Russia’s covert oil trade.
KSE is calling for stricter sanctions on Russian oil and warns that this uninsured shadow fleet poses a serious environmental risk. Much of the Russian oil is shipped through congested international routes, such as the Baltic Sea and the Strait of Gibraltar.
The report also warns of a looming disaster, stating, “Large oil spills have so far been avoided, but a major catastrophe is just a matter of time, and cleanup costs would reach billions.”
Previously, Sweden’s foreign minister told The Guardian that Russia appears willing to risk “environmental havoc” by sending unseaworthy oil tankers through the Baltic Sea, in violation of international maritime safety rules.
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