The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released earlier this month. The agency now projects the average WTI spot price to be $76.91 per barrel this year and $73.13 per barrel in 2025. This is a decrease from the previous STEO, issued in September, which estimated prices of $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025. For 2023, both forecasts set the WTI average at $77.58 per barrel.
The EIA’s updated STEO indicates that the WTI spot price is expected to be $71.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. In 2025, it forecasts prices of $73.67 per barrel in the first quarter, $74.50 in the second, $73.17 in the third, and $71.22 in the fourth quarter. In contrast, the September STEO had projected higher prices, including $77.64 per barrel in Q4 of this year and $80.50 per barrel in the second and third quarters of 2025.
In a report to Rigzone, Paul Horsnell, Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank, projected that the NYMEX WTI crude oil price will average $84 per barrel in Q4 of this year. He expects prices to rise to $86 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $89 in the second quarter, $92 in the third quarter, and $90 in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, a research note from J.P. Morgan’s Commodities Research team indicated expectations of an average WTI crude price of $76 per barrel in Q4, $78 in Q1 of 2025, $73 in Q2, $69 in Q3, and $65 in Q4.
Executives from oil and gas firms shared their price expectations in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The average forecast from 134 executives for the WTI crude oil price at the end of 2024 is $72.66 per barrel. When asked about future prices, 119 executives projected an average of $73 per barrel for six months from now, $76 for one year, $81 for two years, and $87 for five years.
Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com, provided a technical analysis of WTI prices to Rigzone on Wednesday. She noted that crude oil prices are facing increasing pressure as the market stabilizes after the impacts of the Middle East conflict, and supply remains plentiful.
“To regain momentum, prices must close above the critical level of $71.50, which would allow for a test of the significant $75.13 level,” Gule stated. Conversely, she warned that if the support level at $67.12 is breached, the market could decline to as low as $64.75, followed by $64.38.
Gule described the current oil market as undergoing a sideways consolidation phase between $78.00 and $64.00, with an overall neutral to bearish outlook. She added that momentum indicators suggest a possible near-term upward correction that could reach $75.00 to $78.00, although prices remain below the 200-day simple moving average of $75.37.
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