November marks the official start of heating season across much of Europe, and this year is no different. As colder temperatures settle in, gas demand is expected to rise sharply during the final months of the year to compensate for reduced solar and wind energy output.
Earlier in the year, gas prices in Europe surged due to a production halt at a Norwegian platform and concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While prices have since stabilized, they remain higher than usual, dampening consumption. Meanwhile, EU governments have made strides to increase the share of wind and solar energy in the energy mix. However, these sources are highly dependent on seasonal conditions, and their output tends to be at its lowest when demand is at its peak—during the winter months.
This means Europe will rely heavily on natural gas, even though its storage levels are nearly full. In fact, gas withdrawals from storage began in October. Bloomberg has warned that if this winter is colder than the last two, Europe’s gas reserves could be depleted by the end of the season.
The situation is further complicated by Ukraine’s decision not to renew its gas transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom, which expires next month. This will cut off Europe’s last remaining pipeline supply of Russian gas. While this aligns with political objectives, it poses a challenge for consumers. The loss of pipeline gas means Europe will need to increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG)—potentially including Russian LNG.
European LNG imports have already been on the rise. According to a report by Reuters’ Clyde Russell, LNG purchases in October increased for the first time this year, as suppliers and traders prepared for the seasonal surge in demand. These imports are likely to climb further, as solar power generation is expected to drop by at least 50%, according to figures from climate NGO Ember. In typical winter months, solar output tends to fall even more sharply.
Wind energy is also unreliable during winter. While there are windy days, periods of calm, known as “wind droughts,” can occur during high-demand months. These fluctuations highlight the limitations of wind power. As a result, Europe will burn more natural gas in the coming months—and more coal as well.
Although coal is not a popular energy source in Europe, it remains part of the energy mix during the winter. European nations have sought to phase out coal generation in favor of renewable energy, but when heating and lighting become urgent priorities, coal-fired plants are kept online, and imports of coal rise.
This reliance on fossil fuels will increase emissions from power generation. Ember reports that from January to September 2024, lower gas and coal generation led to a 7% decline in emissions from Europe’s power sector. However, that trend is set to reverse as the winter demand for gas and coal rises, highlighting how premature the optimism about reducing dependence on gas may have been.
The reliance on gas could deepen further as the wind and solar sectors face growing challenges. Negative electricity prices during peak sunshine hours, caused by overproduction, may slow the growth of renewable capacity. This could lead to a larger share of the energy mix being dominated by gas—and possibly coal—rather than wind and solar.
At the same time, the European Union remains committed to eliminating Russian gas imports by 2027, even as imports of Russian LNG have risen. Dan Jørgensen, the likely new European energy commissioner, has vowed to end Russian gas imports within his first 100 days in office, despite acknowledging the economic difficulties facing European industries. “We do have a challenge,” Jørgensen said, “Our industry is suffering. They are paying two or three times as much for energy as in the U.S. and China… ordinary people are struggling to pay their bills.”
With limited low-cost alternatives and ongoing infrastructure challenges, gas prices are expected to remain high in Europe, especially compared to the U.S. and China. And while Europe continues to push for a green energy future, the realities of winter demand mean that gas will continue to play a central role in the continent’s energy mix for the foreseeable future.
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