Oil prices are typically driven by geopolitical instability, but for top executives in the oil industry, these very conflicts—especially those in the Middle East—are among their biggest concerns, according to a recent Bloomberg report.
At a major energy conference in the region, oil executives are facing heightened market volatility. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran, both major players in the oil market, have traders worried about potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, China’s slowing economy is dampening oil demand growth.
Compounding these challenges are ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China relations, particularly after President-elect Donald Trump’s promises to increase tariffs on China if elected.
BP CEO Murray Auchincloss highlighted the growing risks in the Middle East. “The conflict in the Middle East is probably the top risk right now,” he said. “We operate across five or six countries in the region, and we are obviously concerned about the security of our people and the stability of energy supplies.”
Similarly, Shell CEO Wael Sawan expressed concern about the state of U.S.-China relations. He also emphasized the need for energy diversification, saying, “We fundamentally believe the world will need more energy and different types of energy.”
Despite these challenges, many executives remain confident that global oil demand will continue to grow, even as Asia’s economic growth slows. They stress that investment in oil infrastructure must continue to meet future supply needs, even as the global energy transition moves toward cleaner energy sources.
The Bloomberg report notes that while there are varying opinions on future demand, some CEOs are optimistic. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that oil demand will peak before 2030, while OPEC and Saudi Aramco remain hopeful, buoyed by recent stimulus measures in China.
Petronas CEO Muhammad Taufik believes that demand will extend well beyond 2030, though price volatility poses a challenge to investments. Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi agreed, noting that this volatility could drive futures prices higher.
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